Wouldn't it be nice if there were a crystal ball to predict the potential success for a mobile app? Unfortunately, there isn't (yet) but the next best thing might be here: A look at the success rate over 6 months from more than 100,000 Android(s goog) apps in 200 countries.
In-app monetization exchange inneractive worked with AppsGeyser to find out the percentage of apps that gained wide adoption within a half-year of launch, noting that the chances of getting 50,000 downloads has diminished over time.
An analysis of Android Apps shows that the best way to combat the App Deluge is to create a network of Apps that cross-promote each other. In other words, with App Discovery becoming more and more difficult (especially in the Android ecosystem), if customers find one of your apps, make it count by cross-selling your other apps to them!